Note: Check out the updated map here.
I thought I was done with Vancouver election analysis. But COPE asked me to do some extra work to help their membership understand what happened during the election, and since I like COPE I agreed. It meant less time for Skyrim and posting Vietnam pictures, but I got a mention in the Georgia Straight.
The analysis I presented for COPE probably isn’t that interesting to non-COPE members, but here’s a few reasons I think COPE did poorly.
- David Cadman didn’t run. He likely would have won his seat on council. Every COPE incumbent gained votes (between 1875 and 3736). The worst any incumbent from any party did was Stuart Mackinnon (Green Parks Board Councillor) – he lost 3654 votes. Cadman could have lost over 8,000 votes and still won a seat on council.
- Vote splitting with the Greens (and to a lesser degree NSV) hurt. You can see it on council, parks board, and school board (see charts below).
- There seems to be a split between social progressives in East Vancouver and enviros on west side of the city. Both supported Vision, but the enviros supported the Greens and the social progressives voted for COPE.
- COPE had only one Chinese candidate, and he was the only candidate that won.
City council vote distribution between 2008 and 2011
The NPA’s vote stays consistent, but the Vision/COPE vote splits between 15 progressive candidates. It hurt Vision as much as COPE, but Vision had more room to drop without losing seats. Raymond Louie lost nearly 3000 votes and was still the top candidate.
Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis Maps
This will be my last election analysis post. I promise.
The Vancouver election results are particularly interesting to analyze because each voter had multiple choices to make – 1 vote for mayor, 10 council, 7 parks board, and 8 school trustees. We now know who won and how many votes each candidate got in total, but it’s not immediately obvious why. In the past week, many pundits have been musing about …
- Why Gregor Robertson got 14,000 more votes than anyone else in Vision?
- Why didn’t Vision’s success help COPE?
- How did Adriane Carr win a seat?
It’s impossible to know who supported Adriane Carr or how many Vision voters didn’t vote COPE, because every ballot is secret. However, if we look at the vote percentages from the 135 polling districts, we can do a correlation analysis to try and answer some of the questions above. The high correlation between the candidates indicates that their votes were consistent across Vancouver (the same good polls and bad polls). This should be a good proxy for determining if candidates attracted support from the same voters.
Here are the scatter plots comparing Gregor Robertson’s vote totals to Raymond Louie, Ellen Woodsworth, Adriane Carr, and Elizabeth Ball.
The corresponding correlation factors are: 0.94, 0.93, 0.71, and -0.95.
Even though Woodsworth had a high correlation with the Vision vote totals, she consistently trailed the Vision candidates across the city. Why? Possibly because voters who voted for Vision and Gregor Robertson split their votes between more candidates than the NPA. Of the top 30 candidates (those getting more than 5000 vote each) 19 had a strong positive correlation with Gregor, 10 had a strong correlation with Anton (the NPA candidates), and 1 was completely random (Kelly Alm – winner of the donkey vote)
Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis – Candidate Correlation
I’m tired and it’s been a long day. I spent 12 hours scrutineering at Renfrew Community Centre, ensuring that Vision got its supporters to the polls. I hope it isn’t a reflection of my hard work, but Suzanne Anton received 50 more votes than Gregor in my poll – which had me freaked out on my bike ride home because I was worried it was going to be a trend across the city. It didn’t help that when I got home the initial results had Anton in the lead.
But now that the results are all in, I’m extremely happy. Gregor beat Anton by a sizable margin, every Vision candidate won, and city council is dominated by environmentally friendly councillors. Now we can focus on 3 more years of bike lanes, food carts, and green initiatives.
My random thoughts on…
The end result is pretty close to my endorsed slate, which I didn’t actually vote for. I debated for a long time what do to with my 10th council vote (between Affleck, Garossino, and Carr) and ended up voting for Carr. I’m happy that she won, but would have been happier with Ellen Woodsworth, who finished in 11th. The biggest disappointment for me is RJ Aquino. RJ’s response to not being elected “At least now I know I’ll have time to play Skyrim”. I wanted to see what he could do on council.
Shifts in Support
Continue reading Vancouver Election Results – Reaction and Analysis
Saturday, November 19, 8:00 AM – 8:00 PM
Check out the City of Vancouver’s election website for basic information on where to vote and what identification you need.
Whomever you think will represent your interests and make Vancouver awesome. I’ll be voting for the Vision/COPE slate, with a few small changes thrown in.
For some other opinions, check out:
For Mayor, I’ll be voting for Gregor Robertson of Vision Vancouver.
For council, my votes in order of preference:
- Andrea Reimer (Vision) – cool, environmentalist, leading Greenest City initiative
- Geoff Meggs (Vision) – transportation guru, supportive of bike lanes
- Heather Deal (Vision) – DSF scientist, lead food cart initiative
- RJ Aquino (COPE) – young, hip, engaged
- Kerry Jang (Vision) – medical health professor, lead push for homeless shelters
- Ellen Woodsworth (COPE) – advocate for affordable housing and social justice
- George Affleck (NPA) – former Modo chair and cycling supporter
- Raymond Louie (Vison) – smart, articulate
- Tony Tang (Vision) – he’s the man(g)
- Tim Stevenson (Vision) – experienced
My thoughts on other candidates I considered voting for:
- Sean Bickerton (NPA) – I like him, he’s a smart guy, he’s willing to debate on twitter, just a bit misguided on cycling issues.
- Tim Louis (COPE) – only COPE candidate I’m not voting for. Not impressed with his combative style.
- Adriane Carr (Green) – I love the Green party, but very disappointed in Carr – she proposed bike-free streets and had the worst answers at Last Candidate Standing. I don’t think she understands urban issues at all.
- Sandy Garossino – I like that she is talking about affordable housing, but not sure where she stands on other issues. Plus stopping foreign ownership is borderline xenophobic.
- Neighbourhoods for Sustainable Vancouver (NSV) – Too much NIMBY-ism. Stopping all housing development will not make Vancouver affordable.
For School Board and Parks Board I’ll be voting for the Vision/COPE slate.
Here’s some video advice from Dan Mangan:
I would urge you to look at the candidates and choose ones that have decided to not go with attack ads, to not go with the low road, to not go with lowest common denominator politics, to not go with strategic griping, but sort of a politician who perhaps actually has passion, who takes into consideration a lot of issues that are on all of our minds.
And some advice from Vancouver cyclists:
I’m really going to vote for a bike-friendly candidate because this is amazing. To see how many people are getting out, to see the healthiness that we’re inspiring in Vancouver, to have safety, I think, is really key, and we want to support those in city council that are going to support cyclists.
Reason #5: Greenest City
Vancouver is a green city, in almost every respect. It’s what convinced me to move here 5 years ago. I love that Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver are working hard to make it even greener.
After months of consultation, Vancouver’s Greenest City action plan was unanimously passed in January. Some pilots have already started, but we should start to see the real results over the next few years, including:
- City-wide composting
- Bike sharing
- Cosmetic pesticide ban
- Discouraging bottled water
- Green jobs and greener buildings
- More community gardens
- Support for pedestrians, cyclists, and transit riders
Here’s some more info on Vision Vancouver’s accomplishments and plans. And here’s what Vancouver’s plan looks like from Seattle.