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Vancouver Election 2018 Primer – Part 7 – Slates

Election Day is in 2 days (October 20) and you’re scrambling to figure out who to vote for.

I have 3 options for you:

  1. Vote for the internet consensus picks.
  2. Vote for my recommended candidates.
  3. Or vote for one of these prebuilt slates. The first 3 are from Allen Pike’s excellent election guide.

vancouver-example-ballots

Stop the NPA West-Side Protectors
The best chance to defeat the NPA (minus Carr and Swanson because they should win anyway) Defending the shrinking populations in Shaughnessy, Dunbar, and Point Grey from renters
  • STEWART, Kennedy
  • BOYLE, Christine (OneCity)
  • CROOK, Adrian
  • FRY, Pete (GREEN)
  • ROBERTS, Anne (COPE)
  • PAZ, Tanya (Vision)
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • O’KEEFE, Derrick (COPE)
  • YAN, Brandon (OneCity)
  • WIEBE, Michael (GREEN)
  • DEAL, Heather (Vision)
  • SIM, Ken (NPA)
  • TAYLOR, Elizabeth (Vancouver 1st)
  • LOW, Ken (Vancouver 1st)
  • DOMINATO, Lisa (NPA)
  • BLIGH, Rebecca (NPA)
  • MUSSIO, Penny (Coalition)
  • KIRBY-YUNG, Sarah (NPA)
  • GREWAL, David (NPA)
  • CHARKO, Ken (Coalition)
  • JOHL, Jesse (Vancouver 1st)
  • CHERNEN, Glen (Coalition)
I Want to Ride My Bicycle Save a Viaduct, Rip Out a Bike Lane
Cycling infrastructure for ages 8-80 Driving is a right, cycling is a luxury
  • SYLVESTER, Shauna
  • BOYLE, Christine (OneCity)
  • CROOK, Adrian
  • FRY, Pete (GREEN)
  • EVANS, Catherine (Vision)
  • COOK, Graham
  • PAZ, Tanya (Vision)
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • PORTER, Elke
  • YAN, Brandon (OneCity)
  • DEAL, Heather (Vision)
  • YOUNG, Wai (Coalition)
  • DE GENOVA, Melissa (NPA)
  • HARDWICK, Colleen (NPA)
  • PETA, Franco (Coalition)
  • MIRZA, Raza (ProVancouver)
  • XIE, Jason (Coalition)
  • MUSSIO, Penny (Coalition)
  • LIN, James (Coalition)
  • CHARKO, Ken (Coalition)
  • JOHL, Jesse (Vancouver 1st)
  • CHERNEN, Glen (Coalition)
Build, Baby, Build Developers Are Evil
Pro-density Thomas Falcone (Abundant Housing) Anti-development Justin Fung (HALT)
  • BREMNER, Hector (YES)
  • BOYLE, Christine (OneCity)
  • CROOK, Adrian
  • SHUM, Erin
  • VIRDI, Jaspreet (YES)
  • PAZ, Tanya (Vision)
  • BAINS, Brinder (YES)
  • TANG, Phyllis (YES)
  • YAN, Brandon (OneCity)
  • OSTLER, Stephanie (YES)
  • CHAN, Glynnis (YES)
  • CASSIDY, Sean
  • FRY, Pete (GREEN)
  • ROBERTS, Anne (COPE)
  • CRELLIN, Breton (ProVancouver)
  • MIRZA, Raza (ProVancouver)
  • SWANSON, Jean (COPE)
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • O’KEEFE, Derrick (COPE)
  • WONG, David HT (GREEN)
  • CARR, Adriane (GREEN)
  • REZEL, Rohana (ProVancouver)
Independents Day No City for White Men
Full of indie street cred Gender-balanced, diversity slate
  • STEWART, Kennedy
  • CROOK, Adrian
  • SHUM, Erin
  • COOK, Graham
  • GRANT, Wade
  • SPIKE
  • BHANDAL, Taqdir Kaur
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • MCDOWELL, Rob
  • RAMDEEN, Katherine
  • PORTER, Elke
  • SYLVESTER, Shauna
  • BOYLE, Christine (OneCity)
  • FRY, Pete (GREEN)
  • PAZ, Tanya (Vision)
  • GRANT, Wade
  • SWANSON, Jean (COPE)
  • BHANDAL, Taqdir Kaur
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • CARDONA, Diego (Vision)
  • WONG, David (GREEN)
  • YAN, Brandon (OneCity)
Rainbow Coalition
Full spectrum of collaborative candidates
  • SYLVESTER, Shauna
  • BOYLE, Christine (OneCity)
  • CROOK, Adrian
  • SHUM, Erin
  • GOODRICH, Justin (NPA)
  • GRANT, Wade
  • BLYTH, Sarah
  • MCDOWELL, Rob
  • O’KEEFE, Derrick (COPE)
  • OSTLER, Stephanie (YES)
  • WIEBE, Michael (GREEN)
  • DEAL, Heather (Vision)

It was surprisingly hard to narrow these lists down to 10 candidates, which is a testament to the quality of candidates we have running this year. Some honourable mentions go to:

  • Penny Noble – “I Want to Ride My Bicycle”
  • Abubakar Khan  – “Independents Day”
  • Erin Shum – “No City for White Men”
  • Diego Cardona (Vision) – “Rainbow Coalition”
  • Brandon Yan (OneCity) – “Rainbow Coalition”

Vancouver Election 2018 Primer

vote

Vancouver is about to enter one of the most interesting and uncertain elections in recent history. The mayor and most of the current councillors are not running for re-election, a number of new parties with similar sounding names have formed, and new campaign finance rules are limiting the influence of big moneyed donors like developers.

Here is my collection of resources to help you figure out who to vote for.

vancouver_political_axis

Part 1: The Parties

minor_issues

Part 2: The Minor Issues

VancouverHousingPlatformsV10

Part 3: Housing

my_ballot

Part 4: My Picks

endorsement_leaderboard

Part 5: Endorsements

surveys

Part 6: Survey Says

slates

Part 7: Slates

2018VancouverCandidateMap

Bonus: Candidate Map

Where to Vote – You can vote at any polling station across the city. Polls are open 8am to 8pm.

Other election guides:

Photo credit: City Of Vancouver

Vancouver Election 2018 Primer – Part 6 – Survey Says

vote.png

We’re less than a week to go to election day. 18,000 Vancouverites have already voted. If you’re not one of them and are looking for more information, here’s a collection of survey responses that you might find helpful.

Hub’s #VoteToBike Survey on Cycling Issues

  • Need to Know: Shauna Sylvester, Kennedy Stewart, OneCity, Vision, and COPE were the most enthusiastic toward new bike infrastructure. Pete Fry (Green) was positive but more hesitant.
  • Interesting Responses:
    • Adrian Crook (Independent) – “If it weren’t for investments in protected bike lanes in Vancouver, my family’s cycling would be severely curtailed. I support the principles of the 8-80 movement, as well as Vision Zero, both of which support modern cycling infrastructure.
  • Notable Omissions: No response from Hector Bremner, Adriane Carr, or anyone in the NPA.

Vancouver Public Space Network on Parks

  • Need to Know: Greens want new pocket parks to increase green space, NPA wants private partnerships.
  • Interesting Responses:
    • Matthew Kagis (Work Less Party) – “There are some unique opportunities on the horizon. Hastings Race Course, with their lease about to end & there’s IF the viaducts come down. Both are excellent opportunities to expand our park network.
    • Stuart Mackinnon (Green) – “Community Centres can and should be used for emergency shelters when temperatures become unmanageable on the streets. In the past term some Commissioners wanted to close these facilities and leave the most vulnerable to freeze on the streets. Luckily this was defeated.
  • Notable Omissions: No response from Vision Vancouver.

Patti Bacchus on School Board

  • Need to Know: The survey is long and I didn’t read all the answers, but Patti provides a good summary. SOGI is a divisive issue. Instead of reading all the responses, just read Patti Bacchus’s endorsements.
  • Interesting Responses:
    • Patti Bacchus on Janet Fraser (Green) – “It takes a lot of chutzpah to take credit for passing a motion that was never implemented by the board you chair. And not in a good way. At all.”
  • Notable Omissions: NPA

Force of Nature on Environment and Climate Change

  • Need to Know: Everyone that responded is committed to tougher GHG reduction targets and annual reporting.
  • Interesting Responses:
    • Shauna Sylvester (Independent) – “Advance the 100% renewable energy targets, support and enhance integrated active transportation into planning, protect and increase the canopy and green space, increase efforts to achieve zero waste, electrify city fleets and enhance community electric charging.”
    • Connie Fogal (IDEA) – Thinks climate change is caused by chemtrails and 5G wireless. And “the little Japanese scooters that operate on one wheel should be encouraged for use by locals who do not have far to travel.”
  • Notable Omissions: No response from Kennedy Stewart, Adriane Carr, the NPA, or Vision Vancouver.

Vancouver Humane Society on Animal Welfare

  • Need to Know: OneCity and the Green Party support Meatless Mondays. Almost all respondents agree with a ban on exotic pets.
  • Interesting Responses:
    • Pete Fry (Green) – “I would be agreeable to seeing plant based food options incorporated into targets and goals for our Greenest City Strategy”
    • Carrie Bercic (OneCity) – “We support the core values of Meatless Mondays, but aren’t able to mandate what students eat in school.”
  • Notable Omissions: None of the leading mayoral candidates plus Vision Vancouver.

Continue reading Vancouver Election 2018 Primer – Part 6 – Survey Says

Vancouver Election 2018 Primer – Part 5 – Endorsements

France Bula asked, so I collected as many endorsement tweets/Facebook posts/blog posts as I could. Point me in the direction of any endorsements / “I voted for …” tweets that I may have missed. I’ll leave it up to the reader to score the posters on ideology.

Full Spreadsheet link

The spreadsheet above includes (but is not limited to):

Cambie Report – Endorsement Episode

Ian Bushfield – Who He’s Voting For

Patrick Meehan – Endorsements

VDLC – Labour Endorsements

Vancouver Fire Fighters – Endorsements

Ken Ohrm (Price Tags) – Endorsements

Colin Stein (Price Tags) – Endorsements

Bicycle Mansplain – Bike Friendly Council

James Wanless – Endorsements

Civic Elxn Watch – Pro-Transit/Pro-Housing

Emily Chan – Endorsements

Todd Smith – Strategic Vote

Ian Mackinnon – Housing-Friendly YVR Voting Guide

For school board, check out Patti Bacchus’s endorsements.

Mapping the 2018 Vancouver Election Candidates

2018VancouverCandidateMap

We know now who is going to be on the ballot in Vancouver on October 20, 2018. And it’s a long, long list. Especially for mayor and city council where there will be nearly twice as many candidates as last year.

There are:

  • 21 Mayoral candidates, compared to 9 in 2014. (1 will be elected)
  • 71 Council candidates, compared to 49 in 2014. (10 will be elected)
  • 33 Park board candidates, compared to 31 in 2014.  (7 will be elected)
  • 33 School board candidates, compared to 29 in 2014. (9 will be elected)

The nomination papers that were submitted last week don’t have much detail (I was hoping to figure out who rents and who owns), but they do have the postal code for each candidate. So I decided to plot them on a map. Some interesting tidbits:

  • Yes Vancouver has a council candidate that lives in Burnaby, Glynnis Chan.
  • ProVancouver‘s Breton Crellin lives even farther from Vancouver, in Pitt Meadows.
  • Coalition Vancouver‘s candidates are clustered in the south half of the city.
  • School board sees the biggest east-west divide, with the NPA and Coalition representing the west side and OneCity, Vision, COPE, and Green representing east Van.
  • Independent candidates Kelly Alm and Gordon Kennedy are running for both council and school board, and apparently that’s allowed.
  • There are 3 aliases on the ballot:
    • Rollergirl aka Angela Dawson (mayor)
    • Spike aka Gerald Peachey (council)
    • Mrs Doubtfire aka Tavis Dodds (school board)

Map of where the candidates live for mayor and council:

Park and school board:


(Raw dataset and combined map)

Here’s the map from 2014 and 2011.

If you want to know more about the parties running candidates this election, check out this blog post.

Mapping the Vancouver 2014 Election Candidates

Vancouver 2014 Election Candidates Map
Is there any regional bias to the Vancouver election candidates? I took the postal codes from the candidates nomination papers and mapped them.

Here are a few interesting tidbits I noticed.

  • NPA mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe lives on the UBC Endowment Lands, so he can’t actually vote for himself (a detail the Straight already noticed).
  • For the main parties, their heaviest concentration of candidates are in the same areas their supporters live, unsurprisingly.
  • Vision and COPE’s candidates are mostly from Kitsilano and East Vancouver.
  • The majority of the NPA’s candidates are from the west-side (12), only 4 are from East Van, and 4 are from the downtown peninsula.
  • Vancouver 1st is running 12 candidates, evenly spread out throughout the city, though none are from the downtown peninsula.
  • The vast majority of the independent candidates live in East Van, including a number from the DTES.
  • For comparison, I also mapped the candidates during the 2011 election.

Mayor and City Councillors

Park Commissioners and School Trustees

Vancouver’s Ultimate 2011 Election Map


Building on the analysis I did for COPE, here is a map that summarizes at a very high level the voting results in Vancouver. I looked at the ‘winners’ – the candidates that placed in the top 10 for city council, top 7 for parks board, and top 9 for school board in each of the city’s 135 polling districts. There are a few slates that do well in concentrated regions of Vancouver.

Hopefully this clarifies my quote in the Vancouver Courier about ethnic voting in south-east Vancouver and the split between west-side enviros vs east-side social progressive voting blocks.

NPA Slate – In the 21 red areas, every single NPA candidate, all 21 of them, win a seat. The NPA’s strength is in Dunbar, Kerrisdale, Arubutus Ridge, and Shaugnessy.
Mostly NPA – In the 11 pink areas, at least 18 of the 21 NPA candidates win.
Vision/COPE Slate – In the 19 blue areas, all 26 Vision and COPE candidates win. The Vision/COPE slate excelled in Stratcona, Commercial Drive, and Mount Pleasant.
Chinese Slate – In the 19 yellow areas, the 7 candidates with Chinese last names win, regardless of what party they are running for. Chinese block voting was the biggest factor in the south-east part of the city – Renfrew-Collingwood, and Kensington.
Green/Vision/COPE – With the addition of Green candidates things get a bit messy. In the 26 light green areas, the Green Party elects at least 2 candidates, and Vision/COPE take most of the rest. The Green Party does best in Kitsilano, the West End, and Fairview.
Green/Vision/NPA – In the 3 dark green areas, the Green party still wins two spots, Vision does well, but COPE is shut out. This is similar to the purple areas below.
Vision/NPA Coalition – These are probably the most interesting parts of the city. There are 12 purple polls where all the Vision candidates win, but the remainder of the spots go mostly to the NPA (not COPE or even the Green Party). Most of downtown, including Coal Harbour and Yaletown, plus a few polls in the Sunset neighbourhood fall into this category.
Mostly Vision / Strong COPE – In the 11 orange areas, Vision elects most of its candidates and COPE elects at least 5 of its 7 candidates. These areas are scattered throughout east Vancouver.
Mostly Vision / Weak COPE – In the 14 light blue areas, Vision elects most of its candidates, but COPE struggles and elects less than 5 candidates.
Mixed – There are 2 gray areas that are a mixed bag that don’t fall into any of the above categories.

For reference, here’s the 2008 map created with similar criteria (tweaked slightly because the Greens ran as part of the Vision/COPE slate and the numbers of candidates from each party is different).

Vancouver Election Analysis Maps

Note: Check out the updated map here.

I thought I was done with Vancouver election analysis. But COPE asked me to do some extra work to help their membership understand what happened during the election, and since I like COPE I agreed. It meant less time for Skyrim and posting Vietnam pictures, but I got a mention in the Georgia Straight.

The analysis I presented for COPE probably isn’t that interesting to non-COPE members, but here’s a few reasons I think COPE did poorly.

  1. David Cadman didn’t run. He likely would have won his seat on council. Every COPE incumbent gained votes (between 1875 and 3736). The worst any incumbent from any party did was Stuart Mackinnon (Green Parks Board Councillor) – he lost 3654 votes. Cadman could have lost over 8,000 votes and still won a seat on council.
  2. Vote splitting with the Greens (and to a lesser degree NSV) hurt. You can see it on council, parks board, and school board (see charts below).
  3. There seems to be a split between social progressives in East Vancouver and enviros on west side of the city. Both supported Vision, but the enviros supported the Greens and the social progressives voted for COPE.
  4. COPE had only one Chinese candidate, and he was the only candidate that won.

City council vote distribution between 2008 and 2011
The NPA’s vote stays consistent, but the Vision/COPE vote splits between 15 progressive candidates. It hurt Vision as much as COPE, but Vision had more room to drop without losing seats. Raymond Louie lost nearly 3000 votes and was still the top candidate.

Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis Maps

Vancouver Election Analysis – Candidate Correlation


This will be my last election analysis post. I promise.

The Vancouver election results are particularly interesting to analyze because each voter had multiple choices to make – 1 vote for mayor, 10 council, 7 parks board, and 8 school trustees. We now know who won and how many votes each candidate got in total, but it’s not immediately obvious why. In the past week, many pundits have been musing about …

  1. Why Gregor Robertson got 14,000 more votes than anyone else in Vision?
  2. Why didn’t Vision’s success help COPE?
  3. How did Adriane Carr win a seat?

It’s impossible to know who supported Adriane Carr or how many Vision voters didn’t vote COPE, because every ballot is secret. However, if we look at the vote percentages from the 135 polling districts, we can do a correlation analysis to try and answer some of the questions above. The high correlation between the candidates indicates that their votes were consistent across Vancouver (the same good polls and bad polls). This should be a good proxy for determining if candidates attracted support from the same voters.

Here are the scatter plots comparing Gregor Robertson’s vote totals to Raymond Louie, Ellen Woodsworth, Adriane Carr, and Elizabeth Ball.

The corresponding correlation factors are: 0.94, 0.93, 0.71, and -0.95.

Even though Woodsworth had a high correlation with the Vision vote totals, she consistently trailed the Vision candidates across the city. Why? Possibly because voters who voted for Vision and Gregor Robertson split their votes between more candidates than the NPA. Of the top 30 candidates (those getting more than 5000 vote each) 19 had a strong positive correlation with Gregor, 10 had a strong correlation with Anton (the NPA candidates), and 1 was completely random (Kelly Alm – winner of the donkey vote)
Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis – Candidate Correlation

Vancouver Election Results – Reaction and Analysis

I’m tired and it’s been a long day. I spent 12 hours scrutineering at Renfrew Community Centre, ensuring that Vision got its supporters to the polls. I hope it isn’t a reflection of my hard work, but Suzanne Anton received 50 more votes than Gregor in my poll – which had me freaked out on my bike ride home because I was worried it was going to be a trend across the city. It didn’t help that when I got home the initial results had Anton in the lead.

But now that the results are all in, I’m extremely happy. Gregor beat Anton by a sizable margin, every Vision candidate won, and city council is dominated by environmentally friendly councillors. Now we can focus on 3 more years of bike lanes, food carts, and green initiatives.

My random thoughts on…
City Councillors
The end result is pretty close to my endorsed slate, which I didn’t actually vote for. I debated for a long time what do to with my 10th council vote (between Affleck, Garossino, and Carr) and ended up voting for Carr. I’m happy that she won, but would have been happier with Ellen Woodsworth, who finished in 11th. The biggest disappointment for me is RJ Aquino. RJ’s response to not being elected “At least now I know I’ll have time to play Skyrim”. I wanted to see what he could do on council.

Shifts in Support

2005 2008 2011

Continue reading Vancouver Election Results – Reaction and Analysis