I’m sure none of the parties are entirely happy with yesterday’s election results. Vision retains control of City Council, with Mayor Gregor Robertson and 6 councillors re-elected, but suffered big loses on Park Board and School Board. The NPA and Greens both gained seats, but neither had the breakthrough they were looking for at City Council. COPE, and all of the smaller parties, didn’t even come close to electing anyone.
Only 11 of the 27 candidates I voted for won, but I’m reasonably satisfied with the results. Vision still has a majority at City Council and can continue to push improvements to bike infrastructure and the urban realm. I hope that Adriane Carr will find a way to join Vision on the Greenest City plan instead of opposing it and everything else.
I plan on doing a deeper analysis of the election results once the spreadsheets are published to find out what happened (my big questions are listed at the bottom), but here is a quick look at the numbers.
- 25% more people voted this election than last time. That is huge!
- In 2011 there were 144,823 votes cast. In 2014 there were 181,707 – 36,884 more.
- Turnout will likely still be less than 50%, but take it with a grain of salt.
- People who move away or die are rarely removed from the voters list, inflating the number of registered voters and skewing turnout percentages.
- Gregor Robertson did well, winning with 83,500 votes (6,500 more than 2011).
- The narrower victory was a result of COPE not a stronger NPA.
- COPE’s mayoral candidate, Meena Wong, received nearly 16,800 votes.
- The NPA gained 15,300 votes, but its vote share only increased by 1%.
- Nearly 3,000 voters chose “None of the Above” for a mayor, twice as many as in 2011.
- 6 Vision, 3 NPA, and 1 Green
- Only change is Melissa De Genova replacing Tony Tang.
- Adriane Carr did amazingly well, attracting 74,077 votes from across the spectrum.
- Carr’s popularity didn’t extend to other Green council candidates, who weren’t close.
- Randomized ballots are needed. Top 5 vote getters have ABCD names.
- 3 elected NPA candidates outpaced their Vision rivals, but didn’t extend to full slate.
- 4 NPA, 2 Green, 1 Vision
- Vision got wiped out.
- Lots of contentious issues: whales in the aquarium, community centre independence, bike lanes in parks.
- Most disappointed that Brent Granby missed a spot by 1392 votes.
- 4 Vision, 4 NPA, and 1 Green
- Closest race last night: Ken Clement misses last school board spot by 255 votes.
- Incumbents Woo and Denike (expelled from NPA for homophobic views) are trounced.
- After just missing spots in 2011, NPA elects Ballantyne and Robertson.
- Not sure why newcomer Joy Alexander did so well, other than listed first alphabetically.
Note: All charts show candidates receiving more than 10,000 votes.
Asterisks (*) indicate incumbents.
Some questions I’d like to answer.
- How important is being one of the first candidates alphabetically?
- Where are the regional pockets of support (harder to tell with open voting)?
- Why did Vision do so bad on Parks Board?
- Which candidates had the same supporters? See 2011 council correlations.
- Was vote splitting a problem?
This will be my last election analysis post. I promise.
The Vancouver election results are particularly interesting to analyze because each voter had multiple choices to make – 1 vote for mayor, 10 council, 7 parks board, and 8 school trustees. We now know who won and how many votes each candidate got in total, but it’s not immediately obvious why. In the past week, many pundits have been musing about …
- Why Gregor Robertson got 14,000 more votes than anyone else in Vision?
- Why didn’t Vision’s success help COPE?
- How did Adriane Carr win a seat?
It’s impossible to know who supported Adriane Carr or how many Vision voters didn’t vote COPE, because every ballot is secret. However, if we look at the vote percentages from the 135 polling districts, we can do a correlation analysis to try and answer some of the questions above. The high correlation between the candidates indicates that their votes were consistent across Vancouver (the same good polls and bad polls). This should be a good proxy for determining if candidates attracted support from the same voters.
Here are the scatter plots comparing Gregor Robertson’s vote totals to Raymond Louie, Ellen Woodsworth, Adriane Carr, and Elizabeth Ball.
The corresponding correlation factors are: 0.94, 0.93, 0.71, and -0.95.
Even though Woodsworth had a high correlation with the Vision vote totals, she consistently trailed the Vision candidates across the city. Why? Possibly because voters who voted for Vision and Gregor Robertson split their votes between more candidates than the NPA. Of the top 30 candidates (those getting more than 5000 vote each) 19 had a strong positive correlation with Gregor, 10 had a strong correlation with Anton (the NPA candidates), and 1 was completely random (Kelly Alm – winner of the donkey vote)
Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis – Candidate Correlation
I did a quick analysis of the Vancouver election results last night, but this morning I did a deeper dive into the data (Skyrim can wait).
I went through the 135 polling districts and tried to find interesting patterns and changes from 2008 to 2011. Here are some of the highlights:
- Mayor Gregor Robertson’s best polls were in Commercial Drive, Mount Pleasant, and Fairview Slops – where he beat Anton by over 500 votes in 13 polls. In poll 33 (heart of Commercial Drive), he topped Anton by a whopping 822 votes!
- Suzanne Anton’s best polls were in Shaughnessy, Kerrisdale, and south-east Vancouver, but the most she was able to beat Gregor by was 386 votes in poll 89.
- Vision’s new super-star candidate is Andrea Reimer. Last election she had the most votes in only one poll. This time, she overcame the donkey vote to finish first in 28 polls (tied with Raymond Louie).
- The West-End put Adriane Carr on Council. She had the most votes in 5 polls (1, 2, 5, 6, 8).
- Despite being one of least popular Vision councillors (at least in terms of votes), Geoff Meggs had the most votes in poll 35 (Olympic Village). Geoff Meggs has taken a keen interest on the Olympic Village, blogging about it frequently, which apparently residents appreciate.
- What’s going on in West Point Grey (polls 129 and 130)? Last election they voted strongly NPA. This time they voted for Robertson and the top city council candidates were Geoff Meggs (who was barely a factor here in 2008) and maverick NPA candidate Bill McCreery, and Adriane Carr had some of her best results outside of the West End.
- The biggest swings to Robertson were in polls 37, 132, 104, 32, and 130 – Kitsilano, Mount Pleasant, and Point Grey – where he picked up an extra 202-342 votes.
- Robertson lost the most support in polls 88, 83, 59, 61, 82, and 89 – heavily Chinese neighbourhoods in south-east and east Vancouver – where Anton gained 223-291 votes.
Continue reading Deep Dive into the Vancouver Election Results
I’m tired and it’s been a long day. I spent 12 hours scrutineering at Renfrew Community Centre, ensuring that Vision got its supporters to the polls. I hope it isn’t a reflection of my hard work, but Suzanne Anton received 50 more votes than Gregor in my poll – which had me freaked out on my bike ride home because I was worried it was going to be a trend across the city. It didn’t help that when I got home the initial results had Anton in the lead.
But now that the results are all in, I’m extremely happy. Gregor beat Anton by a sizable margin, every Vision candidate won, and city council is dominated by environmentally friendly councillors. Now we can focus on 3 more years of bike lanes, food carts, and green initiatives.
My random thoughts on…
The end result is pretty close to my endorsed slate, which I didn’t actually vote for. I debated for a long time what do to with my 10th council vote (between Affleck, Garossino, and Carr) and ended up voting for Carr. I’m happy that she won, but would have been happier with Ellen Woodsworth, who finished in 11th. The biggest disappointment for me is RJ Aquino. RJ’s response to not being elected “At least now I know I’ll have time to play Skyrim”. I wanted to see what he could do on council.
Shifts in Support
Continue reading Vancouver Election Results – Reaction and Analysis
Saturday, November 19, 8:00 AM – 8:00 PM
Check out the City of Vancouver’s election website for basic information on where to vote and what identification you need.
Whomever you think will represent your interests and make Vancouver awesome. I’ll be voting for the Vision/COPE slate, with a few small changes thrown in.
For some other opinions, check out: