Tag Archives: analysis

Data Nerd: Analyzing the BMO Vancouver Marathon 2014 Results

2014 BMO Vancouver Marathon Finishing Times
Which is better for running – hot and dry or cold and wet? Personally, I’d prefer the heat but statistically it seems that the colder, wetter weather is better for finishing times. Last year’s BMO Vancouver marathon was the hottest in the race’s 42 year history (with temperatures over 20 C). This year it was cool and rainy (never getting above 10 C), but across the board times were faster. The winners were around 3 minutes faster than last year. The median times for men were 9 minutes faster. And there was a less slowdown between the first and second halves of the race, with 3 times more people running negative splits (faster 2nd halves). The only negative changes – less finishers and less Boston qualifiers (not sure why that is).

2013 2014
Finishers 3877 3783
Negative Splits 99 293
Second Half Slowdown 7.7% 5.7%
Fastest – Male 2:24:09 2:21:08
Fastest – Female 2:40:34 2:37:00
Median Time – Male 4:10:28 4:01:38
Median Time – Female 4:29:45 4:26:29
Boston Qualifiers 375 357

Here is the analysis I did last year: 2013 Results Analysis. If I have time I’ll do some more in depth analysis for the half marathon results.

Data Nerd: Analyzing the BMO Vancouver Marathon 2013 Results

Now that my marathon training is over, I thought I’d use some of my free time to analyze the race results.

Registration in the 2013 BMO Vancouver Marathon was capped at 5000 and there were 4958 registered runners, but the results show only 3876 people finished the race – 1710 women and 2166 men. Another 102 people dropped out, including last year’s women’s winner Ellie Greenwood. For the remaining 980 runners, injuries probably forced many of them to drop down into shorter distances or not run at all.

2013 BMO Vancouver Finishing Times By Gender
Finishing times ranged from 2:24:08 to 8:12:33. Half of the men finished under 4:10:00. The median time for women was 4:30:00.

Half Splits Histogram
It was the hottest BMO Vancouver marathon in the race’s 42 year history, which clearly affected most runners. Only 99 finishers (2.6%) ran a negative split (where the 2nd half of the race is faster than the first). Everyone else slowed as the race progressed and the temperatures climbed. For most runners, the second half of the race was 3%-11% slower than the first half.
Half Splits By Finishing Time
The elites ran closer to even splits, but even they slowed by a few minutes. For someone running a 3:30 marathon, the second half of the race averaged 10 minutes slower than the first. For a 4 hour marathon, it was 16 minutes slower. For a 5-hour marathon, it was 27 minutes slower.

Boston Qualifiers - Male Boston Qualifiers - Female
375 marathon runners ran times fast enough to qualifiy for the Boston Marathon in their category. Overall the ladies did a better job qualifying, with 189 running BQ times (11%). 186 men (8.6%) also ran BQ times. The categories that had the most Boston qualifiers were Male 50-54 (43), Female 45-49 (34), Male 45-49 (33), and Female 40-44 (32).

Race results were acquired from SportStats.ca.

Vancouver Election Analysis Maps

Note: Check out the updated map here.

I thought I was done with Vancouver election analysis. But COPE asked me to do some extra work to help their membership understand what happened during the election, and since I like COPE I agreed. It meant less time for Skyrim and posting Vietnam pictures, but I got a mention in the Georgia Straight.

The analysis I presented for COPE probably isn’t that interesting to non-COPE members, but here’s a few reasons I think COPE did poorly.

  1. David Cadman didn’t run. He likely would have won his seat on council. Every COPE incumbent gained votes (between 1875 and 3736). The worst any incumbent from any party did was Stuart Mackinnon (Green Parks Board Councillor) – he lost 3654 votes. Cadman could have lost over 8,000 votes and still won a seat on council.
  2. Vote splitting with the Greens (and to a lesser degree NSV) hurt. You can see it on council, parks board, and school board (see charts below).
  3. There seems to be a split between social progressives in East Vancouver and enviros on west side of the city. Both supported Vision, but the enviros supported the Greens and the social progressives voted for COPE.
  4. COPE had only one Chinese candidate, and he was the only candidate that won.

City council vote distribution between 2008 and 2011
The NPA’s vote stays consistent, but the Vision/COPE vote splits between 15 progressive candidates. It hurt Vision as much as COPE, but Vision had more room to drop without losing seats. Raymond Louie lost nearly 3000 votes and was still the top candidate.

Continue reading Vancouver Election Analysis Maps

Vancouver’s Separated Bike Lanes – September Update

Bike Lane in the Rain
A quick update on Vancouver’s separated bike lanes. Last month I wrote about how the lanes were “more popular than ever“, and the trend is continuing. The data for September 2011 is now available, and the bike lanes are still rocking.

Continue reading Vancouver’s Separated Bike Lanes – September Update

Vancouver’s Separated Bike Lanes – More Popular Than Ever

Dunsmuir Bike Corral
NOTE: An updated version of this analysis can be found on Spacing Vancouver.

The past few days I’ve had a tough time finding a spot to park my bike at work. The large bike corral at Dunsmuir and Seymour has been jam packed every morning by 9 am. This anecdotal evidence makes me think cycling is on the rise downtown, but it’s nice to see some hard numbers.

Last February, the City of Vancouver published statistics showing the number of cycling trips taken on the new downtown separated bike lanes. I had fun analyzing it, but was limited by the amount of data – there was only 11 months of numbers to crunch. Since then the City has diligently updated and published the stats every month, and now there is finally enough data to see year-over-year changes (at least on Dunsmuir). The results are interesting and encouraging.
Continue reading Vancouver’s Separated Bike Lanes – More Popular Than Ever

Dunsmuir Bike Lane – By The Numbers

A few days ago the City of Vancouver posted the daily statistics for the Dunsmuir and Hornby separated bike lanes (available here). I am the self-appointed data nerd at work, and thought it would be fun to apply some of the same techniques we use to analyze building energy to bike trips.

The first thing I did was go through the data to see if I could determine the driving factors of bike lane usage. The data file contains data from several sensors (located up and down Hornby and Dunsmuir) but I focused on the Dunsmuir viaduct because it had the most data (11 months worth). With only 11 months of data, you can’t do any year-over-year comparisons, but you can start to notice trends.

The first obvious pattern is there is a clear difference between weekday and weekend usage, with volumes nearly doubling Monday-Friday. This makes sense, since the bike lanes provide access to the downtown.

There is also a noticeable seasonal difference in the data, with summer traffic (peaking at 2099 trips per day) doubling the December high of 1025. The driver of this is, as you might guess, weather related. Once I added in weather data from Environment Canada, you can see a strong correlation between average temperature and bike trips.

The next biggest driver of bike trips is the addition of the separated bike lane on Dunsmuir. On March 3 a bike lane was added to the Dunsmuir Viaduct. On June 15, the separated bike lane extending from the viaduct to Hornby was completed, replacing a painted bike lane. It really shifted up usage of the Dunsmuir Viaduct, adding about 500 extra trips per day in the 2nd half of June.

You can build a pretty good linear model that would predict bike lane usage based on the day of the week and the temperature. The outliers you’ll notice are holidays (which have very low usage), fireworks (which were the highest used days) and days with > 3 mm of rain (marked with R) or snow (marked with S). I was surprised that holiday volumes are lower then weekend volumes. Rain and snow are obvious deterrents to cycling, but extreme cold apparently isn’t. On days where the temperature dropped below freezing, but were dry, cycling volumes were on par with days averaging +5 C.

The last question to ask is “is bike usage increasing”? There was a definite jump after the Dunsmuir separated lane bike lane was completed on June 15. Looking at data since then, you need to isolate out weather to make a fair comparison. If you look at months with similar average temperatures (July/August and December/January) there is small, but noticeable growth in cycling volumes. However, it is tough to say if it is a trend or not. Another year of data would really help. After July 2011, we’ll be able to compare the data to July 2010 and do a year-over-year comparison where the infrastructure isn’t changing. That is when we’ll be able to spot growth.

Thanks to the City of Vancouver for providing this data and the separated bike lanes. It is really interesting to see the growth of commuter cyclists in Vancouver.

Update: Hirtopolis addresses the issue of data fudging and anomalous readings in the city’s data.