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Who said this election was boring? The political map in Canada is about to see the most radical changes in my life time. I’ve been a life-long NDP supporter, especially with Jack Layton at the helm, but I never thought I’d see an NDP surge wash across the country.

Multiple polls are showing the NDP surpassing the Liberals for 2nd place nationwide. More surprising, they’ve surpassed the Bloc in Quebec. The Bloc has been a dominant force in Quebec since 1993 – always winning at least 50% of the seats. But its bleeding votes to the NDP. Could this be the end of the separatist movement? A death at the hands of the NDP? To start to contemplate what the NDP’s rise in Quebec means, read this Pundits Guide article.

And it’s not just Bloc supporters that are moving to the NDP. The NDP is taking votes from the Conservatives in the Prairies, the Liberals in BC, everyone in Atlantic Canada, and the Greens all over the country. The NDP are the preferred 2nd choice of supporters from every party, including the Conservatives. And even with the recent surge in support, the NDP has the most room to grow. Check out these numbers from the most recent Ekos poll – 24.7% choose the NDP as their first choice, and 25% as their second.

Voters 1st and 2nd Choice
Source Ekos poll April 21, 2011 (pdf)

I’m sure more than a few progressives are concerned about vote splitting, now that the NDP and Liberals are essentially tied nationally. However, the NDP rise is eating more into the Conservative and Bloc seat totals then the Liberals. This projection has the NDP at 60 seats, the Liberals up to 82, with the Conservatives and Bloc both losing seats, down to 134 and 32.

Exciting stuff. Get out and vote! Together we can!


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